Хронологія далекого майбутнього

Багато моделей, що описують далеке майбутнє Всесвіту, припускають, що чорні діри залишаться єдиними астрономічними об'єктами.

На космологічній шкалі часу події можуть бути передбачені з більшим або меншим відсотком вірогідності. І хоча пророкування майбутнього не може бути абсолютно точним, справжнє наукове розуміння в різних галузях науки дозволяє давати прогнозований курс на майбутні події.

Легенда

	Галузь науки
	Астрономія і астрофізика
	Геологія і планетологія
	Фізика елементарних часток
	Математика
	Технологія та культура

Майбутнє Землі, Сонячної системи і Всесвіту

	Років вперед	Подія
	36,000	The small red dwarf star Ross 248 passes within 3.024 light years of Earth, becoming the closest star to the Sun. It will recede after about 8,000 years, making first Alpha Centauri and then Gliese 445 the nearest stars (see timeline).
	50,000	The current interglacial period ends, according to the work of Berger and Loutre, sending the Earth back into a glacial period of the current ice age, assuming limited effects of anthropogenic global warming. Niagara Falls will have eroded away the remaining 32 km to Lake Erie, and ceased to exist.
	50,000	The length of the day used for astronomical timekeeping reaches about 86,401 SI seconds, due to lunar tides braking the Earth's rotation. Under the present-day timekeeping system, a leap second will need to be added to the clock every day.
	100,000	The proper motion of stars across the celestial sphere, which is the result of their movement through the galaxy, renders many of the constellations unrecognisable.
	100,000	The hypergiant star VY Canis Majoris will have likely exploded in a hypernova.
	100,000	Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 400 km3 of magma.
	250,000	Lōʻihi, the youngest volcano in the Hawaiian-Emperor seamount chain, rises above the surface of the ocean and becomes a new volcanic island.
	500,000	Earth will have likely been hit by a meteorite of roughly 1 km in diameter, assuming it cannot be averted.
	1 million	Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 3,200 km3 of magma; an event comparable to the Toba supereruption 75,000 years ago.
	1 million	Highest estimated time until the red supergiant star Betelgeuse explodes in a supernova. The explosion is expected to be easily visible in daylight.
	1.4 million	The star Gliese 710 passes as close as 1.1 light years to the Sun before moving away. This may gravitationally perturb members of the Oort cloud, a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter increasing the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.
	8 million	The moon Phobos comes within 7,000 km of Mars, the Roche limit, at which point tidal forces will disintegrate the moon and turn it into a ring of orbiting debris that will continue to spiral in toward the planet.
	10 million	The widening East African Rift valley is flooded by the Red Sea, causing a new ocean basin to divide the continent of Africa.
	11 million	The ring of debris around Mars hits the surface of the planet.
	50 million	The Californian coast begins to be subducted into the Aleutian Trench due to its northward movement along the San Andreas Fault. Africa's collision with Eurasia closes the Mediterranean Basin and creates a mountain range similar to the Himalayas.
	100 million	Earth will have likely been hit by a meteorite comparable in size to the one that triggered the K-Pg extinction 65 million years ago.
	230 million	Beyond this time, the orbits of the planets become impossible to predict due to the limitations of Lyapunov time.
	240 million	From its present position, the Solar System completes one full orbit of the Galactic center.
	250 million	All the continents on Earth may fuse into a supercontinent. Three potential arrangements of this configuration have been dubbed Amasia, Novopangaea, and Pangaea Ultima.
	400-500 million	The supercontinent (Pangaea Ultima, Novopangaea, or Amasia) will have likely rifted apart.
	500-600 million	Estimated time until a gamma ray burst, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's ozone layer and potentially trigger a mass extinction, assuming the hypothesis is correct that a previous such explosion triggered the Ordovician-Silurian extinction event. However, the supernova would have to be precisely oriented relative to Earth to have any negative effect.
	600 million	Tidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from Earth that total solar eclipses are no longer possible.
	600 million	The Sun's increasing luminosity begins to disrupt the carbonate-silicate cycle; higher luminosity increases weathering of surface rocks, which traps carbon dioxide in the ground as carbonate. As water evaporates from the Earth's surface, rocks harden, causing plate tectonics to slow and eventually stop. Without volcanoes to recycle carbon into the Earth's atmosphere, carbon dioxide levels begin to fall. By this time, they will fall to the point at which C3 photosynthesis is no longer possible. All plants that utilize C3 photosynthesis (~99 percent of present-day species) will die.
	800 million	Carbon dioxide levels fall to the point at which C4 photosynthesis is no longer possible. Multicellular life dies out.
	1 billion	The Sun's luminosity has increased by 10 percent, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of ~320 K (47 °C, 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a «moist greenhouse», resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans. Pockets of water may still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.
	1.3 billion	Eukaryotic life dies out due to carbon dioxide starvation. Only prokaryotes remain.
	1.5-1.6 billion	The Sun's increasing luminosity causes its circumstellar habitable zone to move outwards; as carbon dioxide increases in Mars's atmosphere, its surface temperature rises to levels akin to Earth during the ice age.
	2.3 billion	The Earth's outer core freezes, if the inner core continues to grow at its current rate of 1 mm per year. Without its liquid outer core, the Earth's magnetic field shuts down, and charged particles emanating from the Sun strip away the ozone layer, which protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet rays.
	2.8 billion	Earth's surface temperature, even at the poles, reaches an average of ~420 K (147 °C, 296 °F). At this point life, now reduced to unicellular colonies in isolated, scattered microenvironments such as high-altitude lakes or subsurface caves, will completely die out.
	3 billion	Median point at which the Moon's increasing distance from the Earth lessens its stabilising effect on the Earth's axial tilt. As a consequence, Earth's true polar wander becomes chaotic and extreme.
	3.3 billion	1 percent chance that Mercury's orbit may become so elongated as to collide with Venus, sending the inner Solar System into chaos and potentially leading to a planetary collision with Earth.
	3.5 billion	Surface conditions on Earth are comparable to those on Venus today.
	3.6 billion	Neptune's moon Triton falls through the planet's Roche limit, potentially disintegrating into a planetary ring system similar to Saturn's.
	4 billion	Median point by which the Andromeda Galaxy will have collided with the Milky Way, which will thereafter merge to form a galaxy dubbed «Milkomeda». The planets of the Solar System are expected to be relatively unaffected by this collision.
	5.4 billion	With the hydrogen supply exhausted at its core, the Sun leaves the main sequence and begins to evolve into a red giant.
	7.5 billion	Earth and Mars may become tidally locked with the expanding Sun.
	7.9 billion	The Sun reaches the tip of the red-giant branch of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram, achieving its maximum radius of 256 times the present day value. In the process, Mercury, Venus and possibly Earth are destroyed. During these times, it is possible that Saturn's moon Titan could achieve surface temperatures necessary to support life.
	8 billion	Sun becomes a carbon-oxygen white dwarf with about 54.05 percent its present mass.
	20 billion	The end of the Universe in the Big Rip scenario, assuming a model of dark energy with w = −1.5. Observations of galaxy cluster speeds by the Chandra X-ray Observatory suggest that this will not occur.
	50 billion	Assuming both survive the Sun's expansion, by this time the Earth and the Moon become tidelocked, with each showing only one face to the other. Thereafter, the tidal action of the Sun will extract angular momentum from the system, causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth's spin to accelerate.
	100 billion	The Universe's expansion causes all galaxies beyond the Milky Way's Local Group to disappear beyond the cosmic light horizon, removing them from the observable universe.
	150 billion	The cosmic microwave background cools from its current temperature of ~2.7 K to 0.3 K, rendering it essentially undetectable with current technology.
	450 billion	Median point by which the ~47 galaxies of the Local Group will coalesce into a single large galaxy.
	800 billion	Expected time when the net light emission from the combined Milkomeda galaxy begins to decline as the red dwarf stars pass through their blue dwarf stage of peak luminosity.
	1012 (1 trillion)	Low estimate for the time until star formation ends in galaxies as galaxies are depleted of the gas clouds they need to form stars. The universe's expansion, assuming a constant dark energy density, multiplies the wavelength of the cosmic microwave background by 1029, exceeding the scale of the cosmic light horizon and rendering its evidence of the Big Bang undetectable. However, it may still be possible to determine the expansion of the universe through the study of hypervelocity stars.
	3×1013 (30 trillion)	Estimated time for the remnant Sun to undergo a close encounter with another star in the local Solar neighborhood. Whenever two stars (or stellar remnants) pass close to each other, their planets' orbits can be disrupted, potentially ejecting them from the system entirely. On average, the closer a planet's orbit to its parent star, the longer it takes to be ejected in this manner, because stars rarely pass so closely.
	1014 (100 trillion)	High estimate for the time until normal star formation ends in galaxies. This marks the transition from the Stelliferous Era to the Degenerate Era; with no free hydrogen to form new stars, all remaining stars slowly exhaust their fuel and die.
	1.1-1.2×1014 (110–120 trillion)	Time by which all stars in the universe will have exhausted their fuel (the longest-lived stars, low-mass red dwarfs, have lifespans of roughly 10-20 trillion years). After this point, the stellar-mass objects remaining are stellar remnants (white dwarfs, neutron stars and black holes). Brown dwarfs also remain. Collisions between brown dwarfs will create new red dwarf stars on a marginal level: on average, about 100 will be present in the galaxy. Collisions between stellar remnants will create occasional supernovae.
	1015 (1 quadrillion)	Estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in Solar Systems from their orbits. By this point, the Sun will have cooled to five degrees above absolute zero.
	1019 to 1020 (10-100 quintillion)	Estimated time until 90% — 99% of brown dwarfs and stellar remnants are ejected from galaxies. When two objects pass close enough to each other, they exchange orbital energy, with lower-mass objects tending to gain energy. Through repeated encounters, the lower-mass objects can gain enough energy in this manner to be ejected from their galaxy. This process eventually causes the galaxy to eject the majority of its brown dwarfs and stellar remnants.
	1020 (100 quintillion)	Estimated time until the Earth collides with the black dwarf Sun due to the decay of its orbit via emission of gravitational radiation, if the Earth is neither first engulfed by the red giant Sun a few billion years from now nor subsequently ejected from its orbit by a stellar encounter.
	1030	Estimated time until those stars not ejected from galaxies (1% — 10%) fall into their galaxies' central supermassive black holes. By this point, with binary stars having fallen into each other, and planets into their stars, via emission of gravitational radiation, only solitary objects (stellar remnants, brown dwarfs, ejected planets, black holes) will remain in the universe.
	2×1036	The estimated time for all nucleons in the observable Universe to decay, if the proton half-life takes its smallest possible value (8.2×1033 years).
	3×1043	Estimated time for all nucleons in the observable Universe to decay, if the proton half-life takes the largest possible value, 1041 years, assuming that the Big Bang was inflationary and that the same process that made baryons predominate over anti-baryons in the early Universe makes protons decay. By this time, if protons do decay, the Black Hole Era, in which black holes are the only remaining celestial objects, begins.
	1065	Assuming that protons do not decay, estimated time for rigid objects like rocks to rearrange their atoms and molecules via quantum tunneling. On this timescale, all matter is liquid.
	5.8×1068	Estimated time until a stellar mass black hole with a mass of 3 solar masses decays by the Hawking process.
	1.9×1098	Estimated time until NGC 4889, the currently largest known supermassive black hole with a mass of 21 billion solar masses, decays by the Hawking process.
	1.7×10106	Estimated time until a supermassive black hole with a mass of 20 trillion solar masses decays by the Hawking process. This marks the end of the Black Hole Era. Beyond this time, if protons do decay, the Universe enters the Dark Era, in which all physical objects have decayed to subatomic particles, gradually winding down to their final energy state in the heat death of the universe.
	10200	Estimated high time for all nucleons in the observable Universe to decay (if they don't via the above process), through any one of many different mechanisms allowed in modern particle physics (higher-order baryon non-conservation processes, virtual black holes, sphalerons, etc.), on time scales of 1046 to 10200 years.
	101500	Assuming protons do not decay, the estimated time until all baryonic matter has either fused together to form iron-56 or decayed from a higher mass element into iron-56. (see iron star)
	$10^{10^{26}}$	Low estimate for the time until all matter collapses into black holes, assuming no proton decay. Subsequent Black Hole Era and transition to the Dark Era are, on this timescale, instantaneous.
	$10^{10^{50}}$	Estimated time for a Boltzmann brain to appear in the vacuum via a spontaneous entropy decrease.
	$10^{10^{56}}$	Estimated time for random quantum fluctuations to generate a new Big Bang, according to Carroll and Chen.
	$10^{10^{76}}$	High estimate for the time until all matter collapses into black holes, again assuming no proton decay.
	$10^{10^{120}}$	High estimate for the time for the Universe to reach its final energy state.

Астрономічні події

This is a list of extremely rare astronomical events after the beginning of the 11th millennium AD (Year 10,001)

	Років вперед	Дата	Подія
	8,000	—	Earth's axial precession makes Deneb the North star.
	8639 років, 111 днів	20 August, 10,663 AD	A simultaneous total solar eclipse and transit of Mercury.
	8695 років, 245 днів	10,720 AD	The planets Mercury and Venus will both cross the ecliptic at the same time.
	9244 роки, 116 днів	25 August, 11,268 AD	A simultaneous total solar eclipse and transit of Mercury.
	9550 років, 303 дні	28 February, 11,575 AD	A simultaneous annular solar eclipse and transit of Mercury.
	10,000	—	The Gregorian calendar will be roughly 10 days out of sync with the Sun's position in the sky.
	11401 рік, 139 днів	17 September 13,425 AD	A near-simultaneous transit of Venus and Mercury.
	12,000-13,000	—	The Earth's axial precession will make Vega the North Star.
	13,000	—	By this point, halfway through the precessional cycle, Earth's axial tilt will be reversed, causing summer and winter to occur on opposite sides of Earth's orbit. This means that the seasons in the northern hemisphere, which experiences more pronounced seasonal variation due to a higher percentage of land, will be even more extreme, as it will be facing towards the Sun at Earth's perihelion and away from the Sun at aphelion.
	14,000-17,000	—	The Earth's axial precession will make Canopus the South Star, but it will only be within 10° of the south celestial pole.
	13207 років, 340 днів	5 April, 15,232 AD	A simultaneous total solar eclipse and transit of Venus.
	13765 років, 354 дні	20 April, 15,790 AD	A simultaneous annular solar eclipse and transit of Mercury.
	18849 років, 245 днів	20,874 AD	The lunar Islamic calendar and the solar Gregorian calendar will share the same year number. After this, the shorter Islamic calendar will slowly overtake the Gregorian.
	27,000	-	The eccentricity of Earth's orbit will reach a minimum, 0.00236 (it is now 0.01671).
	36148 років, 153 дні	October, 38,172 AD	A transit of Uranus from Neptune, the rarest of all planetary transits.
	46876 років, 304 дні	1 March, 48,901 AD	The Julian calendar (365.25 days) and Gregorian calendar (365.2425 days) will be one year apart.
	65148 років, 245 днів	67,173 AD	The planets Mercury and Venus will both cross the ecliptic at the same time.
	67139 років, 86 днів	26 July, 69,163 AD	A simultaneous transit of Venus and Mercury.
	222483 роки, 331 день	27 and 28 March, 224,508 AD	Respectively, Venus and then Mercury will transit the Sun.
	569716 років, 245 днів	571,741 AD	A simultaneous transit of Venus and the Earth as seen from Mars

Розвідка космічних кораблів

To date five spacecraft (Voyagers 1 and 2, Pioneers 10 and 11 and New Horizons) are on trajectories which will take them out of the Solar System and into interstellar space. Barring an unlikely collision, the craft should persist indefinitely.

	Років вперед	Подія
	10,000	Pioneer 10 passes within 3.8 light years of Barnard's Star.
	25,000	The Arecibo message, a collection of radio data transmitted on 16 November 1974, reaches its destination, the globular cluster Messier 13. This is the only interstellar radio message sent to such a distant region of the galaxy. Assuming a similar mode of communication is employed, it should take at least as long again for any reply to reach Earth.
	32,000	Pioneer 10 passes within 3 light years of Ross 248.
	40,000	Voyager 1 passes within 1.6 light years of AC+79 3888, a star in the constellation Camelopardalis.
	50,000	The KEO space time capsule, if it is launched, will reenter Earth's atmosphere.
	296,000	Voyager 2 passes within 4.3 light years of Sirius, the brightest star in the night sky.
	2 million	Pioneer 10 passes near the bright star Aldebaran.
	4 million	Pioneer 11 passes near one of the stars in the constellation Aquila.
	8 million	The LAGEOS satellites' orbits will decay, and they will re-enter Earth's atmosphere, carrying with them a message to any far future descendants of humanity, and a map of the continents as they are expected to appear then.

Технології та культура

	Років вперед	Подія
	10,000	Estimated lifespan of the Long Now Foundation's several ongoing projects, including a 10,000-year clock known as the Clock of the Long Now, the Rosetta Project, and the Long Bet Project.
	10,000	Humanity is likely to be extinct by this date, according to one version of Brandon Carter's controversial Doomsday argument, which argues that half of the humans who will ever have lived have probably already been born.
	100,000 — 1 мільйон	Fastest time by which humanity could colonize the 100,000 light-year galaxy and become capable of harnessing all the energy of the galaxy, assuming a speed of 0.1c or greater.
	5 — 50 мільйонів	Time by which the entire galaxy could be colonised by means within reach of current technology.

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